Dialectic Africa Analyst

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         On June 20, 2016, I published an article titled: "Nigerian Naira: The misfortune of its people is the glee of foreign investors."  This article turned out to have the most one day views of any article ever written since the inception of this blog about fourteen months ago. Two months later, let us concisely review my major short-term expectations as stated in the article against present economic and market reality In Nigeria.    1. Expectation: The stock market will have a transient positive bump and then tank as the reality of pain sets in.  The naira free float policy commenced on June 20, 2016.   Reality:  The Nigeria All Share Index rose by 1.12% from June 20 to June 30.  The NGSE index declined by 4.42% in July and has declined by 2.25% as at August 25, 2016.  The market had a transient boost during the last nine trading days of June and then has been on a persisten

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                                  Gradually it is becoming more evident that human prejudices that have existed since time immemorial are also impacting the way fund managers make decisions in Africa. The first angle I will look at is the demographic composition of staff of hedge funds that invest in Africa.  I have looked at Brazilian, Chinese, Eastern Europe, Asian, South East Asia, Latin American, American, Middle East and African funds.  The funds whose investment staffing is least similar in makeup to the region of portfolio inflows is Africa. People of European and American origins dominate African and frontier market funds.  This staffing domination is not seen anywhere close to the extent it is in funds invested in non African markets. Why are funds more open to talent from regions of investment focus except when it is Sub-Saharan Africa? The matter is further laid bare when South Africa domiciled A

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         I will keep this one short.  On May 3, 2016 ( search May archive on this blog for Forte Oil ) I published my view that Forte Oil was expensive and deserved to fall to around N150.00 .  Ten weeks later, on July 13, 2016, Forte Oil fell to N155.75 exactly as I predicted, despite persistent support at the N190.00 level prior to that.  The article on May 3, 2016 will lead you into another article published in February 2016.  Current feelers are that it is now on the rise today after falling into the N150.00 level I determined is its logical (natural) rebound price.  All my assertions are still available for viewing to verify.   While I have always intended to make this blog not be about buying and selling, I will not hesitate to stick out my neck every now and then to showcase my abilities.   Buy-side research is its own boss; you do NOT need a fellow human being to validate your abil

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                   Most African stock exchanges are thinly traded on a volume and activity basis.  Some listed companies rarely trade at all and others that trade regularly do so in insufficient quantities relative to demand.  African companies across industries have embarked on an expansion spree across the African continent in the quest for revenue as markets became saturated in their home countries.  As these companies improve their performances through the conquering of new territory, are investors across the continent being given a chance to partake in ownership of these companies?  Shakespeare said "to know you is to love you"  Investors say "to see you is to buy you"   There are two types of cross listings: Listing of the parent company's ordinary shares on another stock exchange in another country or the listing of depository shares of parent company on another exchange in anothe

Dear All:                 This unique blog is now one year old and has over 100 articles.  Seems like just yesterday I kicked off as a hobby.  I have provided a few stock picks, helped people avoid expected losses, talked about African economies and where the bright lights and challenges are.  I have talked about what some companies need to do to improve their fortunes and exposed companies not being transparent about their financial performances where applicable.  I have talked about Africa in the context of power, energy, commodities, agriculture, infrastructure, currency depreciation, GDP growth and stock exchanges.  Most importantly, I have been loyal to the TRUTH without fear or favor .   I sincerely hope the continent improves and this starts with people in decision making positions being selfless and not selfish.  Unfortunately this has been the bane of Africa courtesy of its rulers and corporate oligarchs.   The donate button is visible on desktops and tablets at

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         Developed and major African markets took a tumble after British citizens voted to leave the European Union last week Thursday.  As the markets tumbled in Africa, analysts were (and still are) screaming themselves hoarse that Brexit is the cause.  Is Brexit a coincidental excuse for the market downturn in Africa over the past three trading days or does it run deeper?  This got me thinking and I went looking for answers.   I picked three developed markets and seven African markets for assessment purposes.   1. U.K.  (FTSE 100)  The U.K. is included here as a reference constant .  2. U.S.A.  (Dow Jones) 3. Germany (Frankfurt Dax) 4. Egypt 5. Kenya 6. Nigeria 7. Cote D' Ivoire (BRVM) 8. Ghana 9. Morocco 10. South Africa The big concern for any country should be: how much do we earn from U.K. imports and will this figure be negatively impacted post-Brexit?  The

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         I dedicate what I am about to write to all those around the world that fearlessly stand up for the truth in whatever sphere of life they operate in and earn their livelihood.  The happenings discussed in this article are all direct experiences of mine and one hundred percent truth .  You are free to remain in denial; this does not change what the truth is and remains.  I am putting this into the public domain to bring certain things to light.  If I did not meet certain people I never expected to meet, this write-up would never have seen the light of day.   Sometime in May 2016, I was finally able to set up a meeting with a frontier market fund manager based in USA that I had not yet met in person.  He had previously commended me on the quality of one of my articles in the past.  I walked into his office for the first time and sat down.  I felt with his passion for frontier markets inve

This is a repeat article originally published on September 25, 2015 and still available on this blog.  I felt it was pertinent to bring the article back to the top due to a particular policy action from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which reminded me of this article.  A few add ins in the last two paragraphs.    Why will the Central Bank Governor allow banks to sell dollars received from the CBN to their customers at self-determined rates?  There should be a narrow defined spread between the daily inter-bank closing stop rate and rates at which dealing banks sell to their customers.  Nigerian banks are once again being given an opportunity to 'milk' the system.  A policy decision that affects the nation is actually enriching pockets of interest and sending more pockets of people into penury.  Greed has become ubiquitous while patience needed by policy makers and the populace has gone AWOL.   Read on.          Dear Africa Interested Individuals:                     

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                   The Nigerian government has just completed the introduction of policies that have culminated in a trifecta of pain on its citizens and residents that will have a massive and immediate impact on the standard of living of its people.   Never before in the history of Nigeria has there been a combination of the below official events all within a six-month period . 1 .    Electricity prices were increased on average by 80% per kilowatt hour more  to residential customers effective February 1, 2016 .  Commercial customers were also not left out.  The abolishment of fixed monthly charges may reduce the overall charge to a 40% increase which is what the media is reporting.   Electric power distribution (supply and quality) actually got worse after the increase took effect and majority of customers nationwide are still getting estimated billing  and not actual usage bills .  The regulator/governme