Dialectic Africa Analyst

T his ‘big picture’ analysis will look at what has happened in the economy and the stock market in Nigeria in 2018, why it is happening and how to make the best of the present situation.  Nigeria’s economy rose by 1.95% in Q1 2018, slightly below the revised figure of 2.1% for the fourth quarter of 2017. Q1 2018 is Nigeria’s fourth consecutive quarter of positive economic growth. The GDP growth of 1.95% for Q1 2018 broke a positive trend of five consecutive quarters of improving GDP growth. The non-oil sector (which the government had made its perennial focus for a more resilient economy) grew 0.8% annualized in Q1 2018 compared to 1.5% in Q4 2017. The oil sector grew by 14.8% annualized in Q1 2018 relative to the revised figure of 11.2% in Q4 2017. Overall, Nigeria’s four consecutive quarters of positive economic growth was driven mainly by recovering oil production and steadily rising prices. The Nigerian economy appears to be moving back to its perennial over reliance on...

Dear Africa interested professionals: On April 25, 2016, I wrote an article (can be found as the featured post on this blog or using the  search function) and stated that the domestic retail investor will determine the performance of the Nigerian stock market.  2018 has brought more evidence to buttress my assertion. The Nigerian stock market’s most ignored and maligned customer base is the domestic retail investor.  This largely ignored customer base determines how the stock market in Nigeria will perform. In January 2018, domestic retail investors put N 106.5B in the Nigerian stock market and the stock market rose approximately 16%. The contribution of domestic retail investors has not even reached half of that figure per month from February to June 2018 and the Nigerian stock market is now in negative territory at approximately 1.6%. Total foreign portfolio investment from January - May 2018 rose by 121% compared to the same period in 2017. Domestic in...