Dialectic Africa Analyst

Dear Africa interested individuals:                     I had a flash about something I have noticed on multiple African exchanges for awhile and felt it was best to finally put my thoughts in written form.  I did not know what to expect from my findings but, felt I would uncover something insightful.   Over the years, I have noticed parent companies listing wholly or majority owned subsidiaries on African stock exchanges at higher prices per share than the listed parent on the SAME exchange . When you mention this, the other side tells you to focus on the market value.  They tell you the market value of the parent is larger than that of the subsidiary and that is what is more important.  The market value is more important to the owner(s) of the company; the price per share of the stock is (or at least should be) more important to the investor.        The more I thought about this readily more prevalent scenario, the more unsettled I became.  "It just does not feel r

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                                When a country has a large population in comparison to most other countries in the world, its has to overly prioritize feeding its population.  Efforts should be focused on responsible agricultural investment within the populous country.  Beyond feeding a country's population and generating produce for internal consumption and export, agriculture is also the world's largest provider of jobs.   The twenty (20) most populous countries in the world as at 2015 are: 1. China 2. India 3. USA 4. Indonesia 5. Brazil 6. Pakistan 7. Nigeria 8. Bangladesh 9. Russia 10. Japan 11. Mexico 12. Phillipines 13. Ethiopia  14. Vietnam 15. Egypt 16. Iran 17. Germany 18. Turkey 19. Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 20. Thailand     There are four (4) African countries among the twenty most populous countries in the world.  How are these coun

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                        Banks have been encouraged over the years to reveal more of their liabilities and potential liabilities on the balance sheet instead of off it.  This act helps improve transparency and gives investors a better chance to predict the likelihood of sudden and extreme deterioration across key financial performance indicators.   Potential risks to the balance sheet that are not on it,are usually found in the notes as contingent liabilities .  Guarantees, letters of credit, performance bonds and bankers' acceptances are usually listed off the balance sheet.  Some banks (like First Rand) have decided to put their bankers acceptances on the balance sheet.  The Central Bank of Nigeria under Sanusi issued a directive for all banks in Nigeria to move their bankers' acceptances onto the balance sheet.  Not all banks have complied with this directive and I am not aware of any reversal through

http://guardian.ng/opinion/naira-devaluation-proponents-got-it-wrong/ The above article from the Guardian Newspaper ( not prepared by me) shares my opinion that the Naira does not require further devaluation to make Nigeria better for its people and the economy . My original article is available on this blog titled: "Naira Devaluation." Have a nice weekend.  

Dear Africa Interested Individuals:                                                         Two divergent comments from two bank CEOs crossed the airwaves this month and got me thinking all of a sudden.  As I pondered on the unfolding development, I had a brain flash and here is the end product.   Equity Bank CEO: James Mwangi announced this month that Equity Bank has suspended its African expansion plans due to slowing economic growth across countries of interest.  Equity Bank had planned to expand into Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Mozambique and Zambia as a first level priority.  A slide in commodity prices has caused African currencies to tumble and sent reverberating economic shocks across the continent.  Tunisia, Ghana and Angola have already received IMF aid with Zambia likely next in line.   Equity Bank will instead focus on deepening its presence in markets in which it already operates by growing branch networks.   Equity Bank still intends to achieve its original target of

http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/jude-fejokwu-stock-exchanges-need-independent-managers.html                                           Tell others to tell others about this Blog

Dear Africa interested individuals,                                                                  My article titled "Forte Oil: The market is waking up."  I mentioned that investors should buy Tiger brands as an event driven purchase.  I said it will return at least 50% in a few weeks.  The stock has already returned 70% since the day I mentioned this. I also spoke about Forte Oil.  It's the only stock today, May 13, 2016 among stocks in the Energy sector that is experiencing excess supply.  The positive vibe towards the sector is due to the deregulation of the downstream sector in Nigeria.  Investors apparently see more income in the short term. I f you have two years or less to wait and do not mind making 200% in exchange for your patience, then invest in FBN Holdings.  Don't ask yourself in the future: how did I miss that?       Tell others to tell others about this blog.

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         I was privileged to be invited to attend an event in New York with the CEO of BOURSE REGIONALE DES VALEURS MOBILIERES (BRVM )as the speaker.  He came to speak to US frontier market fund managers about the progress the exchange has made and plans for the future.  BRVM is the 6th (sixth) largest stock exchange in Africa by market capitalization.  The top five are: Johannesburg, Nigeria, Casablanca, Egypt and Nairobi.    Major takeaways: 1. Two stocks out of the thirty-nine listed companies on the Exchange are widely held by foreign institutional investors.  The two are:   A. Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) is held by 30 foreign investors.   B. Sonatel  (Telecom) is held by 27 foreign investors.   Both stocks provide the most public financial and operational disclosure among all the listed companies on the BRVM.  We can see clearly see the appeal to foreign investors.

Dear Africa Interested Individuals:                                                          South Africa is Africa's second largest economy (dethroned two years ago by Nigeria) and most advanced economy.  South Africa is competing perennially as the   second   largest investor (foreign direct investment) in Africa typically behind the United States of America. South Africa has continually made it difficult for other African countries' companies to break into its market or export products into South Africa that these African countries have an absolute and/or comparative advantage over South Africa in through protectionist policies and high import tariff barriers . South Africa's foray into the continent creates relatively few  new   job opportunities.  This is despite the country being the second largest FDI investor in Africa and its massive investment outlay across the African continent from Morocco to Mozambique. There are over 60 successful South African