Dialectic Africa Analyst

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         I will keep this one short.  On May 3, 2016 ( search May archive on this blog for Forte Oil ) I published my view that Forte Oil was expensive and deserved to fall to around N150.00 .  Ten weeks later, on July 13, 2016, Forte Oil fell to N155.75 exactly as I predicted, despite persistent support at the N190.00 level prior to that.  The article on May 3, 2016 will lead you into another article published in February 2016.  Current feelers are that it is now on the rise today after falling into the N150.00 level I determined is its logical (natural) rebound price.  All my assertions are still avail...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                   Most African stock exchanges are thinly traded on a volume and activity basis.  Some listed companies rarely trade at all and others that trade regularly do so in insufficient quantities relative to demand.  African companies across industries have embarked on an expansion spree across the African continent in the quest for revenue as markets became saturated in their home countries.  As these companies improve their performances through the conquering of new territory, are investors across the continent being given a chance to partake in ownership of these companies?  Shakespeare said "to know you is to love you"  Investors say "to see you is to buy you"   There are two types of cross listings: Listing of the parent company's ordinary share...

Dear All:                 This unique blog is now one year old and has over 100 articles.  Seems like just yesterday I kicked off as a hobby.  I have provided a few stock picks, helped people avoid expected losses, talked about African economies and where the bright lights and challenges are.  I have talked about what some companies need to do to improve their fortunes and exposed companies not being transparent about their financial performances where applicable.  I have talked about Africa in the context of power, energy, commodities, agriculture, infrastructure, currency depreciation, GDP growth and stock exchanges.  Most importantly, I have been loyal to the TRUTH without fear or favor .   I sincerely hope the continent improves and this starts with people in decision making positions being selfless and not selfish.  Unfortunately this has been the bane of Af...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         Developed and major African markets took a tumble after British citizens voted to leave the European Union last week Thursday.  As the markets tumbled in Africa, analysts were (and still are) screaming themselves hoarse that Brexit is the cause.  Is Brexit a coincidental excuse for the market downturn in Africa over the past three trading days or does it run deeper?  This got me thinking and I went looking for answers.   I picked three developed markets and seven African markets for assessment purposes.   1. U.K.  (FTSE 100)  The U.K. is included here as a reference cons...

This is a repeat article originally published on September 25, 2015 and still available on this blog.  I felt it was pertinent to bring the article back to the top due to a particular policy action from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) which reminded me of this article.  A few add ins in the last two paragraphs.    Why will the Central Bank Governor allow banks to sell dollars received from the CBN to their customers at self-determined rates?  There should be a narrow defined spread between the daily inter-bank closing stop rate and rates at which dealing banks sell to their customers.  Nigerian banks are once again being given an opportunity to 'milk' the system.  A policy decision that affects the nation is actually enriching pockets of interest and sending more pockets of people into penury.  Greed has become ubiquitous while patience needed by policy makers and the populace has gone AWOL.   Read on.        ...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                   The Nigerian government has just completed the introduction of policies that have culminated in a trifecta of pain on its citizens and residents that will have a massive and immediate impact on the standard of living of its people.   Never before in the history of Nigeria has there been a combination of the below official events all within a six-month period . 1 .    Electricity prices were increased on average by 80% per kilowatt hour more  to residential customers effective February 1, 2016 .  Commercial customers were also not left out.  The abolishment of fixed monthly charges may reduce the overall charge to a 40% increase which is what the media is reporting.   Electric power distribution (supply and quality) actually got wors...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                      I mentioned in my article titled "29 African Banks published on May 23, 2016" that ETI is one of two banks (the other is National Bank of Egypt) in grave danger due to a combination of excessive leverage and high contingent liabilities relative to total assets. The CEO of ETI recently spoke about changes to the status quo during a presentation to stockbrokers at the Nigerian Stock Exchange.  His speech reflects the understanding at the helm of ETI that significant changes to the way the business is being run presently have to be made.  I could not agree more.     The key takeaways for me are: 1. ETI has simplified its operating model which has led to the redefinition of business segments and geographical regions.  Portfolios will ...