Dialectic Africa Analyst

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                                   Kenya has been in the nose in recent years with one accounting scandal after the other.  The scandals came into the public domain through aggrieved parties, Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Kenya (ICPAK) or foreign parent companies.  Investigations into the "cooking of the books" exposed corrupt dealings and outright looting in some cases.  These are definitely worrying developments as is the recent case of Tesco in the UK and Toshiba in Japan where profits were overstated. In Kenya, accounting scandals of note over the years are: 1. Uchumi Supermarkets 2. Mumias Sugar 3. Haco Tiger Brands 4. CMC Motors 5. Kenya Airways The only acknowledged accounting scandal in Nigeria till ...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                                 Over the past one year under the leadership of Patrick Njoroge, three Kenya banks have gone into receivership and the National Bank of Kenya has had its CEO & CFO removed along with four others.  A net profit of 2.25B Ks by September 2015 turned into a net loss of 1.15B Ks by December 2015 for National Bank of Kenya.  Patrick Njoroge, has stated that " never again will fuzzy numbers and creative accounting be used to deceive investors in banks."  The system is rotten and he has decided to openly acknowledge it and resolved to clean up the system.  Kenya is in tune with the rot within its banking system and is putting in place a better structure and closer surveillance and reporting to restore investor co...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         On June 20, 2016, I published an article titled: "Nigerian Naira: The misfortune of its people is the glee of foreign investors."  This article turned out to have the most one day views of any article ever written since the inception of this blog about fourteen months ago. Two months later, let us concisely review my major short-term expectations as stated in the article against present economic and market reality In Nigeria.    1. Expectation: The stock market will have a transient positive bump and then tank as the reality of pain sets in.  The naira free float policy commenced on June 20, 2016.   Reality:  The Nigeria All Share Index rose by 1.12% from June 20 to June 30.  The NGSE index declined by 4.42% in...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                                  Gradually it is becoming more evident that human prejudices that have existed since time immemorial are also impacting the way fund managers make decisions in Africa. The first angle I will look at is the demographic composition of staff of hedge funds that invest in Africa.  I have looked at Brazilian, Chinese, Eastern Europe, Asian, South East Asia, Latin American, American, Middle East and African funds.  The funds whose investment staffing is least similar in makeup to the region of portfolio inflows is Africa. People of European and American origins dominate African and frontier market funds.  This staffing domination is not seen anywhere close to the extent it is in funds invested in non African ...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                         I will keep this one short.  On May 3, 2016 ( search May archive on this blog for Forte Oil ) I published my view that Forte Oil was expensive and deserved to fall to around N150.00 .  Ten weeks later, on July 13, 2016, Forte Oil fell to N155.75 exactly as I predicted, despite persistent support at the N190.00 level prior to that.  The article on May 3, 2016 will lead you into another article published in February 2016.  Current feelers are that it is now on the rise today after falling into the N150.00 level I determined is its logical (natural) rebound price.  All my assertions are still avail...

Dear Africa interested individuals:                                                   Most African stock exchanges are thinly traded on a volume and activity basis.  Some listed companies rarely trade at all and others that trade regularly do so in insufficient quantities relative to demand.  African companies across industries have embarked on an expansion spree across the African continent in the quest for revenue as markets became saturated in their home countries.  As these companies improve their performances through the conquering of new territory, are investors across the continent being given a chance to partake in ownership of these companies?  Shakespeare said "to know you is to love you"  Investors say "to see you is to buy you"   There are two types of cross listings: Listing of the parent company's ordinary share...

Dear All:                 This unique blog is now one year old and has over 100 articles.  Seems like just yesterday I kicked off as a hobby.  I have provided a few stock picks, helped people avoid expected losses, talked about African economies and where the bright lights and challenges are.  I have talked about what some companies need to do to improve their fortunes and exposed companies not being transparent about their financial performances where applicable.  I have talked about Africa in the context of power, energy, commodities, agriculture, infrastructure, currency depreciation, GDP growth and stock exchanges.  Most importantly, I have been loyal to the TRUTH without fear or favor .   I sincerely hope the continent improves and this starts with people in decision making positions being selfless and not selfish.  Unfortunately this has been the bane of Af...